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Synonymous codon substitutions are not always selectively neutral as revealed by several types of analyses, including studies of codon usage patterns among genes. We analyzed codon usage in 13 bacterial genomes sampled from across a large order of bacteria, Enterobacterales, and identified presumptively neutral and selected classes of synonymous substitutions. To estimate substitution rates, given a neutral/selected classification of synonymous substitutions, we developed a flexible$dN/dS$substitution model that allows multiple classes of synonymous substitutions. Under this multiclass synonymous substitution (MSS) model, the denominator of$dN/dS$includes only the strictly neutral class of synonymous substitutions. On average, the value of$dN/dS$under the MSS model was 80% of that under the standard codon model in which all synonymous substitutions are assumed to be neutral. The indication is that conventional$dN/dS$analyses overestimate these values and thus overestimate the frequency of positive diversifying selection and underestimate the strength of purifying selection. To quantify the strength of selection necessary to explain this reduction, we developed a model of selected compensatory codon substitutions. The reduction in synonymous substitution rate, and thus the contribution that selection makes to codon bias variation among genes, can be adequately explained by very weak selection, with a mean product of population size and selection coefficient,$Ns=0.8$.

 

Virus host shifts are generally associated with novel adaptations to exploit the cells of the new host species optimally. Surprisingly, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has apparently required little to no significant adaptation to humans since the start of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and to October 2020. Here we assess the types of natural selection taking place in Sarbecoviruses in horseshoe bats versus the early SARS-CoV-2 evolution in humans. While there is moderate evidence of diversifying positive selection in SARS-CoV-2 in humans, it is limited to the early phase of the pandemic, and purifying selection is much weaker in SARS-CoV-2 than in related bat Sarbecoviruses . In contrast, our analysis detects evidence for significant positive episodic diversifying selection acting at the base of the bat virus lineage SARS-CoV-2 emerged from, accompanied by an adaptive depletion in CpG composition presumed to be linked to the action of antiviral mechanisms in these ancestral bat hosts. The closest bat virus to SARS-CoV-2, RmYN02 (sharing an ancestor about 1976), is a recombinant with a structure that includes differential CpG content in Spike; clear evidence of coinfection and evolution in bats without involvement of other species. While an undiscovered “facilitating” intermediate species cannot be discounted, collectively, our results support the progenitor of SARS-CoV-2 being capable of efficient human–human transmission as a consequence of its adaptive evolutionary history in bats, not humans, which created a relatively generalist virus. 

Abstract Due to the scope and impact of the COVID-19 pandemic there exists a strong desire to understand where the SARS-CoV-2 virus came from and how it jumped species boundaries to humans. Molecular evolutionary analyses can trace viral origins by establishing relatedness and divergence times of viruses and identifying past selective pressures. However, we must uphold rigorous standards of inference and interpretation on this topic because of the ramifications of being wrong. Here, we dispute the conclusions of Xia (2020. Extreme genomic CpG deficiency in SARS-CoV-2 and evasion of host antiviral defense. Mol Biol Evol. doi:10.1093/molbev/masa095) that dogs are a likely intermediate host of a SARS-CoV-2 ancestor. We highlight major flaws in Xia’s inference process and his analysis of CpG deficiencies, and conclude that there is no direct evidence for the role of dogs as intermediate hosts. Bats and pangolins currently have the greatest support as ancestral hosts of SARS-CoV-2, with the strong caveat that sampling of wildlife species for coronaviruses has been limited.